july 2011 2012 silver

Click on this july 2011 2012 silver chart to enlarge

Compare the july 2011 2012 silver chart to the following 5 year chart.

Our 26 or 29 post made last week played out almost exactly as we had said it would.

Early in the first week of July 2012 silver started trading lower than the open and seemed to want to go to 26. Mid week the sentiment had shifted and silver buyers were moving the price which peaked at 28.5.

On Friday, July 6, all kinds of economic reports failed to prromote a stronger economy and the price of silver spiked back towards 26.

The 5 yr chart shows the potential upside should silver break through that bearish vertical channel which has big support and resistance level at the current price of 28. Then again at 31. The high of 48.48 set as the peak of the bull silver rally which broke above 20 in 2010 is a nice top to hope for if a bull silver rally comes to pass in the last part of 2012.

However!!!

A test below 26 would certainly make sense here since there are likely tons of stop orders that could be hunted out of play at that level.

However if the silver price does go below 26 then how are we to know that it isn't a genuine market sentiment and not just a stop hunting strategy ?

Again, from looking at the 5 year chart we see how deep a bear silver ratlly could go. There was a big range between 10 and 20 that lasted for several years and which was broken out of in July and August of 2010.

So basically we have been experiencing silver above 20 dollars US for 2 years alreadly.

1 minute silver set up

I am studying this 1 minute silver setup.

The xagusd chart has simple sma 60 and 100 added to it along with a basic moving average convergence divergence indicator.

A one minute chart is only tradeable if you are willing to sit and watch the trading platform for hours on end. However, what works on a one minute setup chart will generally work on a longer timeframe. Trading charts is a fractal thing were scalability is the key word.

As above so below.

What do you need in order to enter a trade if you are a technical trader ?

You need a signal and you get that signal by using one or several technical indicators. On this particular 1 minute silver setup chart the quoted price starts printing below the 100 and 60 ma's and drags in the bear sector.

There are two points on this 1 minute silver setup chart where the MACD indicates weak reversal efforts which some traders might be tempted to use as buy points thinking that the bear rally is oversold and complete. I consider those MACD points as false starts and prefer to wait at least until the spot silver quoted price test the 60 sma. At that point I look for the next MACD signal.

At this point I can enter a trade, long silver in this case, and, depending on my strategy, I place a sl order below the last low. ( I hate stop loss orders mainly because I believe in the idea that there are some amongst us who would manipulate markets in order to win at all costs ). There are other methods of beating the fear and greed factor that comes from some people trying to force sense in the markets.

Having entered a trade on this 1 minute silver setup chart at the indicated area, the next step is easy as pie. The trader has to look for an exit point.

One potential exit point is indicated on this 1 minute silver set chart. There are other exit strategies.

This study is for educational purpose only. Use at your own risk and if you dare. And try it on other traded assets. If it works out for you please come back and comment about it.

I will be adding other examples of this 1 minute silver setup as time goes by.

29 or 26

Will silver go to 29 or 26 USD on the spot market ?

It is the end of June 2012 and it is Saturday and all silver trading is on the backburners for the weekend. The last trading day of June 2012 set silver at a price of 27.5.

Here's my chart of silver - XAGUSD - with some trendlines that were drawn in. Most trendlines are very bearish for silver on this chart.



Silver 29 to 26 ? That is the question...


June 2012 was a wicked month in silver trading. In the first week of June 2012 we saw a spike to nearly 30 USD. The energy that fueled that spike faded quickly and the XAGUSD quote retraced quickly to 29 and ranged above the May 2012 29 to 28.5 range.

Silver bull sentiment faded away with the Bernanke news releases and the price of silver quickly drepped from 29 to 26.

It wasn't until the last few days of the month and some news releases coming out of the EU ssummit meetings claiming that the EU banks would be recapitalized that silver traders found enough courage to buy the white metal up to 28  ( in the blink of an eye ). The bottom line for June 2012 silver spot was 27.5 XAGUSD.

What's next ? 29 or 26 ?

A person could make arguments for both sides. Silver short term ranges always offer several percentatges of volatility. This next month could as easily be a series of short waves fluctuating between 26 and 29 as it could be an early July 2012 bull run to test 29 then an aggressive bull move to challenge 30 which would somehow indicate a longer term trend reversal for technical traders.

At the beginning of May 2012 XAGUSD broke below 30 USD and no one, except silver bullion buyers has dared to pay more than 30 dollars for an ounce of silver since.

So where to ? 29 or 26 ?

Most physical silver buyers who are looking to buy on the cheap and hold on to their silver are likely hoping for the silver spot price to fall well below 26 at which point they could accumulate more physical silver.

That is the long game. What about the people who dare to trade silver spot market contracts either long or short ? That is the silver paper game which most physical silver traders do not bother with.

The paper silver game is the arena of the silver market manipulators. Or at least that is the general feeling amongst those who research and follow the silver trading trail.

The biggest question of this particular " Silver News Blog " is " Can one play both the physical silver buy and hold game and the paper silver trading game at the same time.

Buying silver bullion is a no brainer in a world that is on the brink of madness if not completely mad already.

Silver bullion, if nothing else, will serve well in a blackmarket society or when paper money is become worthless.

Until then however, the money masters, ie., big players like JP Morgan Chase Co and others will continue to defend their short positions and by doing so there will likely continue to be plenty of these multi percentage overnight spikes in silver.

Can the average Joe buy and sell silver spot contracts and challenge ranges like the one that might settle between 29 to 26 ?

That is the question ?

How much do I buy ? How much do I sell ? How do I justify being long and short at the same time ?

Those are other questions.